WTC FEATURED SPEAKERS

Presentation at the World Trade Center of New Orleans

by

Alejandro Lainez
Investment Executive
Center of Export & Investment of Nicaragua

on the topic of

"Rebuilding Central America’s Economies:
U.S. Programs In Support Of Central American
Reconstruciton And Development"

June 11, 1999

A Synthesis of Nicaragua before Mitch:

  • In the 80’s: Flight of human capital, sharp contraction of financial resources for maintenance and improvement, civil war.
    • Accumulation of large debt
    • Serious deterioration of infrastructure
  • 1990´s: Achieved substantial progress in strengthening its democracy, developing a market economy and establishing a social policy.
    • From hyperinflation in 80´s (>30,000%) to single digit in 1997(7%), 1998 (18%)
    • GDP growth 1997 (5%), 1998 (4.3%), 1999 (7% projected)
    • Cut international debt from 11.2 to 6.2 billion USD
    • Exports have tripled
  • However: Infrastructure backlog still was an unresolved challenge -- US$ 0.6 to 1.0 billion for the urban and non-urban road network alone. Poor infrastructure impeded recovery of production, employment, and exports.

 

The impact of hurricane Mitch

  • On transportation, power, housing and telecommunications infrastructure:
    • 3,045 dead, 18% of population affected
    • 151,215 homes damaged(roughly 30,000 destroyed)
    • US$ 326 million (UNDP) in damages, 94% of which in the road sector
    • Two thirds of the road network affected (5,695 km)
    • 29 bridges destroyed(1,933 meters)
    • Three hydro plants suffered major damages (150 MW affected)
    • 10 high voltage transmission lines interrupted by the collapse of towers
    • Serious damages to the electricity distribution network in affected communities
    • For several days, 172 towns and villages were isolated
  • On the rural economy:
    • Losses in the 1998-1999 crops
    • Longer term losses due to:
      • Damage to permanent plantations
      • Loss of topsoil
      • Loss of herds
      • Other capital losses

 

A basic strategic element:
Expanding the private sector’s role

  • Required to increase efficiency and obtain capital needed for improvement and expansion of infrastructure services.

Achievements to date:

  • Laws enacted to:
    • Separate regulatory from operational activities in telecommunications and electric power (1995)
    • Allow the concessioning of roads to the private sector (1996)
    • Regulate the exploration, extraction, and commercialization of hydrocarbons (1998)
    • Allow the leasing of the fuel distribution company PETRONIC (1998)
    • Segment the electric power company (ENEL) into separate enterprises for generation, transmission, and distribution (1998)
    • Permit the concessioning or divestiture of generation and distribution activities (1998)
    • Allow the privatization of a 40% controlling share of equity capital of the telecommunications company (ENITEL)
  • Schedule approved to bring rate structures closer to long-term marginal costs in power and telecommunications

 

Expanding the private sector’s role:
Further actions planned

  • In the road network:
    • Privatization of all but three of government-owned construction enterprises, and transformation of remaining ones into minimum-capacity provincial road maintenance units, by end-2000
    • Private concessioning of:
      • Rehabilitation, widening, or construction, and operation and maintenance, of a few road links (Managua-Masaya, Managua by-pass, etc.)
      • Maintenance of a larger number of links (promote participation of small and micro enterprises)
    • Implementation of Road Maintenance Fund
    • Other cost recovery measures
  • In energy:
    • Regulatory framework for wholesale market of electric power in place by mid-1999
    • 43% of electric power generation capacity supplied by private agents by end-1999
    • Segmentation of electric power company (ENEL) into separate enterprises for generation, transmission, and distribution completed by end-1999
    • Privatization of distribution companies in 2000, followed by generation companies
    • Part of the proceeds from privatization to provide seed capital for rural electrification
    • Future private investment opportunities in power generation concentrated in clean energy sources: biomass, geothermal, hydro, and wind
    • PETRONIC leased to a private operator in 1999
  • In telecommunications: Privatization of ENITEL in 1999
  • In ports and airports: Preparation of their privatization in the rest of 1999

 

However, substantial public investment is still required in 1999-2003

  • In roads:
    • Most of the major maintenance, rehabilitation, and improvement works
  • In ports and airports:
    • Core initial investment needed to put the ports of Corinto and Rama in acceptable operating conditions while privatization can proceed
    • Urgent rehabilitation in other ports and airports
  • In electric power:
    • Repair of hurricane damages
    • Expansion and improvement of transmission network
    • Seed capital in rural electrification
  • In telecommunications:
    • Repair of hurricane damages
    • Possibly some seed capital in rural telecommunications
  • These works can help in providing much needed transitory employment, especially in the areas hardest hit by the hurricane.

Summary of investment priorities in infrastructure
(Mill. US$)

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Presented priority criteria can help adjust the program to fit within macroeconomically viable ceilings.

Road network

Policies and public investment needs

The challenges

  • Total non-urban road network:
1942 1979 end 1998
200 km 17,800 km 18,900 km

-- of which paved: 1,700 km (9%)

A country with Nicaragua’s extension and per capita GDP should have at least 5,000 km more of roads than it has now.

  • Density of paved roads (13 m per square km) is only about 1/5 of that in Cuba or Jamaica, and 1/30 of that in Belgium or Japan.
  • Rehabilitation investment backlog:

Non urban

-- Before Mitch US$ 400 to 600 million

-- Replacement cost of damages US$ 300 million

Urban US$ 200 to 400 million

TOTAL: US$ 900 to 1,300 million

(Estimated costs depend on standards assumed for rehabilitation.)

 

Financing strategy

  • Cofinancing by bilateral donors and multilateral agencies
  • Mobilize private sector financing
    • Use bilateral cofinancing to obtain the necessary degree of concessionality
    • Give road links in concession
  • Evaluate possible cost recovery schemes:
    • Tolls for using specific road links or bridges
    • Toll charges to border-to-border transit traffic
    • Surcharge on fuel
    • Annual fees according to vehicle types and their contribution to road deterioration
    • Special charges on large vehicles, to recover the cost of extra capacity
    • Traffic fines
    • Direct charges to individuals or communities whose property increases in value
  • Cost sharing with local governments and communities
    • Pilot program for such projects as:
      • Paving access roads, village squares, and pedestrian lanes
      • Building shoulders and bicycle lanes
      • Improving dangerous intersections
      • Reducing dust formation in roads
  • Road maintenance fund

 

Priority public investment programs

  • Urgent flood protection
  • Urgent bridge reconstruction on main corridors
  • Complete reconstruction or repair of larger bridges on main corridors and important feeders
  • Nation-wide paved road major maintenance (sponsored by World Bank)
  • Rural road rehabilitation (sponsored by IDB)
  • Rural road stabilization and improvement (sponsored by World Bank)

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Priority public investment programs (cont.)

  • Full rehabilitation or improvement of main corridors and feeders. Reconstruction, major rehabilitation, widening, or paving, as can be financed and is economically and socially justified
  • Suburban network around Managua.(some World Bank and IDB projects)
  • Pacific natural corridor and feeder roads (World Bank, DANIDA)
  • Pan-American North corridor and feeder roads (IDB)
  • Eastern corridor and feeder roads (DANIDA, IDB, World Bank)
  • North-eastern corridor
  • Urban road improvement and maintenance fund.
  • Nation-wide road safety program.

 

 

Investment priorities in the road network (Mill. US$)

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Ports and airports

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Strategic criteria

  • National Priority: Access to the Atlantic at competitive costs
  • Short term options:
  • Reducing transportation costs to Cortés (Honduras) and Limón (C.Rica)
    • Expediting procedures at border crossings
    • Improving road conditions
    • Promoting competition among truck operators
  • Reactivating services at El Rama river port (on the Nicaraguan Caribbean)
    • Improving road
    • Dredging the river mouth (El Escondido)
    • Promoting private development of the port and services
  • Improving port services at Corinto (on the Nicaraguan Pacific)
    • Installing additional container crane
    • Improving efficiency: Load and unload 200-300 TEUs in 12 hours
    • Attracting additional cargo volume from other Central American ports on the Pacific
    • Attracting weekly service between Corinto and hub port of Manzanillo, Panamá
    • Privatizing port and services
  • Medium term options:
  • Privatizing development and services of ports and airports
  • Private project for barge navigation through San Juan river
  • Private inter-oceanic railroad corridor projects: feasible with only C.A. cargo?

 

Investment priorities in ports and airports (Mill. US$)

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Rural and Urban Housing

Policies and public investment needs

Strategic criteria

  • There was a housing deficit equal to 378,627 homes before Hurricane Mitch
  • Damaged Home Repair Project:
    • A voucher equal to $750.00 will be given to rural home owners to repair their damaged homes. 17,566 homes will be repaired with an estimated cost of $12.3 million in 1999
  • Emergency Housing Project
    • 10, 000 kits of construction materials will be given to families that are in shelters for the auto-construction of homes. Estimated cost of $25 million in 1999
  • Reduction of Housing Deficit Project
    • Build 15,000 per year at an estimated cost of $4,500.00 per house. The estimated cost is $22.5 million per year (2000-2002)
  • Social Fund for Housing
    • Private home developers can present projects to be approved so that the State will contribute from 20 to 37.5 % of cost of the house.
Cost of house Usd$ Government subsidy %
10,000 20.0
7,000 25.0
4,000 37.5

 

Electric Power

Policies and public investment needs

Strategic criteria

  • Creation of a competitive electricity market
    • As of May of 1999, 20% of the 396 MW domestically generated potential is supplied by private sector
    • For the remaining of 1999, further contracts are being negotiated with the private sector for an additional capacity of 115 MW
    • By end-1999, there will be an estimated capacity surplus of 57 MW, necessary for a major overhaul or scrapping of some of the old thermal plants
    • Expansions, from 2000 onward, through private investment in a competitive market

 

  • Rural electrification
    • Goal: 400,000 additional connections
    • Cost: ~US$ 400 million
    • Financing: US$ 100 million from ENEL privatization, US$ 150 million from the private sector and beneficiary communities, US$ 150 millions from donors

 

Investment priorities in electric power (Mill. US$)

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Telecommunications

Policies and public investment needs

 

Strategic criteria

  • Goal: Increase density from 4 lines per 100 persons as of end-1998, to 16 lines by 2004
  • Annual investment requirements: US$ 122 million
  • Private investors will have to finance and implement this expansion
  • To this end, 40% of ENITEL will be privatized in 1999

 

Investment priorities in telecommunications (Mill. US$)

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