The Internet Explosion By the end of next year, the global internet user population will exceed 140 million (greater than the entire population of Japan), and international online business-to-consumer commerce will grow to over $20 billion. While international adoption of electronic commerce has thus far been reluctant, an explosion in the international online population, and consequent growth opportunities in Web-related commerce beckon in most of the world’s major markets. Government ownership of utilities, unreliable technological infrastructure and low teledensity rates, and the expense and inaccessibility of appropriate technologies have hitherto hindered online growth. But as many utilities are broken up and privatized, the new infusion of competition inciting the development of stronger and more reliable technological infrastructures, and as international economic growth and the commoditization of computers and related technologies buoy consumers’ prospects, the Internet is becoming increasingly accessible. Finally, perhaps, the true global potential of the World Wide Web may be explored and fully realized.

By the year 2003, the world-wide number of people with Internet access is expected to be 350 million, with global eCommerce dollars reaching $1.2 trillion. For the first time in history, North Americans will not dominate the world’s online population in 1999. By 2002, the North American Net population will only represent one third of the world’s total, at 98 million. Europe will be home to 84 million Net users, Asia will boast over 60 million, Latin America will hold 26.6 million (a 550% increase from 1998), and the rest of the world will have another 12 million. Many nations have already begun to demonstrate phenomenal growth. The Chinese government’s declaration of 1999 as "the year of getting on the Internet" is clearly supported by the numbers, as the nation’s online population has doubled from 2.1 million to 4 million in the past six months alone. During that same period, the number of European banks online more than doubled, and the number that allow online transactions tripled. In fact, Europe is well ahead of the U.S. in the number of cyberbanks and online banking services. It is statistics like these that indicate a tangible, global migration to the Internet. And while encumbering issues remain to be explored, growth opportunities presented by burgeoning populations, growing economies, and an increasingly pervasive understanding that an Internet presence is fundamental to competitive survival, are finally allowing the Internet to take hold as a vital and influential business channel in these foreign markets.

About Tim Ashby

Timothy Ashby is National Marketing Director for Grant Thorton’s eCommerce services group. A former executive with Ernst & Young, Dr. Ashby has also served in the U.S. Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean, and as a Vice President with Internet-based Sylvan resource Technologies, Inc. He has an MBA from the University of Edinburgh, Scotland, and a Ph.D. in International Relations from the University of Southern California.

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